International relations – Creative Room 4 Talk Wed, 22 Jun 2022 19:01:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 International relations – Creative Room 4 Talk 32 32 Iran’s foreign policy is centered on neighborhood diplomacy (government) Wed, 22 Jun 2022 17:13:11 +0000

TEHRAN – Iranian government spokesman Ali Bahadori Jahromi said Monday that Tehran’s foreign policy focuses on neighborhood diplomacy, expressing optimism about improving relations between Iranians and their neighbors.

Bahadori Jahromi said he expected this approach to help strengthen relations between Iranian citizens and these countries, as well as between Iranian and foreign elites.

The official made the comments during a meeting with a group of foreign businessmen, experts and elites in Iran.

The conference was held on the occasion of World Refugee Day in Tehran, the Iranian capital.

Bahadori Jahromi believes that foreign intellectuals residing in Iran can help overcome the Iranophobic scheme of enemies of the Islamic Republic by portraying the nation in its true light.

He also referred to concerns that foreign residents in Iran might face, saying the administration was working diligently to overcome them.

Some of the challenges, he continued, are related to legal norms and administrative processes, while others are related to international relations.

The foreign elites present at the meeting came from Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey, Spain and France, among others.

National and Regional Consultations on Educational Transformation in Namibia – Namibia Tue, 21 Jun 2022 07:11:33 +0000

Namibia, under the leadership of the Ministry of Education, Arts and Culture (MoEAC), in collaboration with the UN in Namibia, undertook a nationwide consultation process to seek input on strategies transformation of the education sector in the country in order to contribute to the achievement of SGD 4. August 2022, in Windhoek, and the Global Education Transformation Summit, on September 19, 2022, in New York (UN Headquarters).

Following the UN Secretary-General’s call to transform global education into five thematic strands, Namibia took global leadership to co-lead the first thematic strand with Italy. At the local level, the consultation process started with an information meeting at the Ministry of International Relations and Cooperation on April 14, 2022, followed by consultative meetings with various stakeholders. Following these meetings, technical teams traveled to all 14 regions of Namibia from May 31 to June 13 to engage, document recommendations and commitments to improve access to quality education for all the children.

The Namibian government has shown leadership and ownership of the process through the full participation of the Minister of Education, Arts and Culture, the Deputy Minister and senior Ministry officials in all consultations. In addition, various United Nations country representatives and heads of agencies with their technical teams joined the consultations and provided technical advice.

The regional consultations brought together nearly 2,476 stakeholders, including government, school board members, regional government officials, school principals and staff, parents, traditional and community leaders and religious leaders, members of town and village councils, representatives of civil society and the private sector, representatives of disabled people’s organizations and United Nations agencies. Of these, 307 were learners and young people. In parallel, two other processes were used to collect the inputs. Stakeholders who were unable to attend the face-to-face consultations were invited to participate via social media, resulting in 120,000 followers on Facebook and 6,613 via Twitter, signifying the value of a wide stakeholder consultation for shared responsibility in Transforming Education.

Closing the consultations, a validation meeting was organized to consolidate and validate the results and conclusions of all regions from June 13 to 15, 2022, in Swakopmund. The Minister, Senior Ministry Officials, UN Agencies in Namibia, Key Stakeholders and Actors, have committed to four broad-based systemic outcomes. These are:

  • Resourcing quality education
  • Transformation of regional (sub-national) offices
  • Transformation of teacher education
  • National Literacy and Numeracy Campaign

These address many of the concerns raised in the regional consultation processes while creating the conditions for real change and transformation across the national education system.

The Minister, as national lead, and her team are expected to present Namibia’s position paper and statement of commitment at the Transforming Education pre-summit from 28-30 June 2022 in Paris.

China and Japan prepare for another round of high-level talks on maritime affairs; results will likely be “very limited” Sun, 19 Jun 2022 14:06:00 +0000

Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea Photo: Xinhua

China and Japan are expected to hold another round of high-level consultations on maritime affairs on Thursday, Japanese media reported on Saturday. However, Chinese experts believe that the results of the talks will be “very limited”, given Japan’s evasion of the historical facts of the Diaoyu Islands and its recent provocations to China.

It will be difficult for the two sides to reach a constructive consensus, but the smooth functioning of the dialogue mechanism is positive for the region, experts told the Global Times.

At the meeting, China will be represented by Hong Liang, director general of the Department of Boundary and Maritime Affairs of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while Japan will send the head of the Office of Asian and Oceanian Affairs of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Takehiro Funakoshi. Japan will file a protest against “development work and repeated intrusions by Chinese vessels into Japanese waters” around the Diaoyu Islands, according to Kyodo News.

The Diaoyu Islands issue is the biggest dispute between China and Japan in the East China Sea region and should be the focus of the upcoming talks, said Liu Jiangyong, vice dean of the Institute of International Relations. from Tsinghua University. Hours on Sunday.

The Diaoyu Islands have been an inherent territory of China since ancient times. However, “due to the propaganda of successive Japanese administrations on this issue, the Japanese people believe that the Diaoyu Islands are the territory of Japan,” Liu said. “So many Japanese believe that Chinese official ships operating near the Diaoyu Islands are interfering in Japan’s territorial waters. This misperception should not continue to exist.”

In November 2021, the two sides confirmed at a general manager-level meeting that they would adhere to the four-point principled consensus between China and Japan, strengthen dialogue and consultation on maritime affairs, and handle differences constructively.

However, more than six months after the meeting, the atmosphere of cooperation between the two sides for the joint development of the Diaoyu Islands, which had been previously agreed upon, has been completely destroyed by Japan, experts noted.

For China and Japan, the Diaoyu Islands issue is a historical issue that is difficult to resolve overnight. However, observers noted that establishing a rational, professional and stable dialogue mechanism between relevant Chinese and Japanese officials is positive for the region.

Some observers believe Tokyo has adopted the most vicious China policy since normalizing relations 50 years ago, as Japan continues to flirt with hot-button China issues such as the Taiwan issue, and reportedly intends to send an active-duty defense official to the island of Taiwan to enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities. Japan has also repeatedly lobbied China in international contexts over the Ukraine crisis.

And the United States, having consolidated its strategy of global checks and balances, has also used Japan as one of the most important pawns to contain China in Northeast Asia, Li Kaisheng, researcher and deputy director at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.

“Given the situation, it will be difficult for China-Japan relations to return to a friendlier state in the near future,” Li said. principle to maintain basic stability. However, with the new initiatives of the United States under its “Indo-Pacific strategy”, the relationship is becoming increasingly unstable”.

This increases the difficulty of resolving the Diaoyu Islands issue and the risk of conflict, experts have warned. Japan should also stop provocations to avoid further angering China.

During a phone call with Japanese national security chief Takeo Akiba on June 7, Yang Jiechi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Central Committee’s Foreign Affairs Commission Office of the CPC, said old problems in China-Japan relations are intertwined with new ones, and the challenges cannot be ignored if the two countries wish to have “healthy” relations.

Yang also said the two countries should work together to ensure “stable, healthy and resilient” relations over the next 50 years, and “jointly maintain regional peace and prosperity.”

world times

New Masters in Global Security Program Has Unique Holistic Approach to Prepare Students for Tomorrow’s Threats > News > USC Dornsife Fri, 17 Jun 2022 20:25:03 +0000 USC Dornsife’s master’s program in Global Security Studies combines courses in international relations, space science, and environmental studies, and draws on resources from the USC Shoah Foundation.

USC Dornsife’s new Master of Arts in Global Security Studies program teaches students to understand our dynamic world through expertise in political science, international relations, economics, space science, and environmental studies. (Image source: iStock.)

In short:

  • Through unique holistic coursework and a summer internship, USC Dornsife’s new Masters in Global Security program prepares students for careers or career progression in national defense, human rights , disaster relief and related fields.
  • The faculty of the program includes esteemed academics and seasoned professionals from government, NGOs and the private sector.
  • The application deadline for the two-year term beginning in fall 2022 is July 15.

Canada’s decision to spend record sums on its naval fleet after years of poor budget allocations may seem odd at first, but the mystery is quickly dispelled with a closer look at climate data showing rapid ice retreat from the nation’s coastline, says John Wilson, a professor of sociology, architecture, civil and environmental engineering, computer science, preventive medicine, and space science at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.

“There are a whole host of opportunities, challenges and threats in the Arctic due to global warming, and this will have an effect on many areas,” Wilson said.

Without ice, Canada’s coastline is more accessible to ships, whether hostile military craft or everyday transport and trade vessels. Seen in this larger context, it is easier to understand the country’s defense spending and to make predictions about its future political and economic actions.

Understanding our changing world through the lens of experts in political science, international relations, economics, space science, and environmental studies will be the focus of USC Dornsife’s new Master of Arts in Global Security Studies program. The two-year, full-time program, which begins in fall 2022, offers students a choice of three concentrations: Intelligence and Security, Global Security and Humanitarian Response, or Environmental Security.

Students who wish to pursue or advance a career in government, or in non-governmental organizations such as those dealing with human rights, or in private business, including those focused on national security, will find the program particularly useful, says Steven Lamy, USC Dornsife Distinguished Professor of International Relations and Space Science.

Lamy points to the internship opportunities and the space science component of the program as two things that set it apart from other master’s programs like this.

“It’s not just government agencies, it’s a lot of non-governmental and private sector actors who are looking for people who have the skills in space science to do things like assess attacks during war and how populations assigned to it, using map data,” Lamy explains.

“To provide students with real-world and meaningful experience, we are also planning internship opportunities here in the United States, such as at the Department of State, and abroad, in places like Latin America and Europe. “

The faculty members of the program are renowned scholars in the fields of international relations, defense, marine ecology, global human rights, spatial analysis, disaster management, mass violence and national intelligence.

Human Security

Lamy says the program will cover several areas of global security: traditional security, which is typically military defense and other protections for nation states; environmental security, which relates to the effects of climate change, man-made and natural disasters, and similar factors on people; and human security, which is a newer concept that emphasizes the human rights and sovereignty of the individual rather than the nation state.

Often, countries focus on the economic or political autonomy of the nation, but the experiences of the humans within it slip through the cracks, Lamy says. To help students understand the real effects of war and other disasters on populations, the program will draw on the extensive resources of the USC Shoah Foundation – The Institute for Visual History and Education.

Amy Carnes, acting chief of staff at the USC Shoah Foundation, says the institute will teach students how to analyze the testimonies of survivors of war and genocide, and use those accounts to highlight the human impact of mass violence. and underline the humanity in humanity. Security.

“One of the big issues in rebuilding society after genocide is how to hold people to account, how to use existing legal systems or invent new ones to try to bring justice to what happened. past,” Carnes said. She adds that the institute’s partnerships with UNESCO and organizations that work with survivors of events like the Holocaust and genocide in Rwanda provide students with material from a wide variety of contexts.

“Because we have connections with so many partners around the world who do work related to human security and the consequences of mass violence, we have many resources and bring a lot to the table in terms of partners and practical practices. experience,” says Carnes.

Environmental elements

The program offers environmental security as another key component, and Wilson says students will learn to use geographic information systems (GIS) tools and other data to examine in real time how populations respond to wars, earthquakes dirt, pollution and more. Using these tools to explore the long-term impact of international events will also be key to predicting disasters and creating solutions, he adds.

“Ukraine is one of the largest food exporters in the world, and Russia apparently intends to close all of Ukraine’s shipping routes,” Wilson said. Much of the world, many of which are suffering from the effects of drought and other factors related to climate change, depends on Ukrainian agricultural exports for food. “Without Ukraine’s crops, we risk facing a serious humanitarian crisis.”

The program’s emphasis on scientific data collection as well as survivor and eyewitness testimony, in addition to a broader look at current politics and historical events, will train students well in their fields, whether in government or humanitarian aid, says Wilson. Being able to see the connections between climate change and Canadian defense policy, for example, or how the war in Ukraine will affect people in other countries and on other continents, is important for people who want to make meaningful change. , he adds.

“I think to make a difference, we need creative thinkers who can tackle big issues that often span multiple countries, and then use sophisticated data analysis and modeling to bring the parties together to implement solutions to these problems,” he said.

Macron woos Putin and plays a bigger role in Europe Wed, 15 Jun 2022 20:29:53 +0000

PARIS — Until recently, French President Emmanuel Macron was able to get through the Ukrainian crisis with a certain know-how. His diplomatic efforts to prevent the Russian invasion and then, after Russia attacked, to bring about a truce failed. But they appeared to bolster his narrative of France as a natural mediator and bolstered his leadership credentials at home, helping him win re-election as president in April. And the European Union, currently under the French presidency, appeared more united than it had been in a long time, quickly agreeing to impose severe sanctions on Russia in response to the aggression.

But in the past two months, Macron has increasingly found himself the diplomatic punching bag of embittered allies, his international standing diminished by confusing messages about what exactly France’s plan is. The French leader’s repeated remarks that Russia “should not be humiliated”, in order to preserve the chances of a diplomatic solution, drew the ire of the Ukrainian government, along with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Tweeter that such appeals “humiliate France”.

Macron’s overtures and regular contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin have also underscored a split between France and tougher Ukrainian supporters, including the US, UK, Poland and the Baltic states.

PARIS — Until recently, French President Emmanuel Macron was able to get through the Ukrainian crisis with a certain know-how. His diplomatic efforts to prevent the Russian invasion and then, after Russia attacked, to bring about a truce failed. But they appeared to bolster his narrative of France as a natural mediator and bolstered his leadership credentials at home, helping him win re-election as president in April. And the European Union, currently under the French presidency, appeared more united than it had been in a long time, quickly agreeing to impose severe sanctions on Russia in response to the aggression.

But in the past two months, Macron has increasingly found himself the diplomatic punching bag of embittered allies, his international standing diminished by confusing messages about what exactly France’s plan is. The French leader’s repeated remarks that Russia “should not be humiliated”, in order to preserve the chances of a diplomatic solution, drew the ire of the Ukrainian government, along with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Tweeter that such appeals “humiliate France”.

Macron’s overtures and regular contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin have also underscored a split between France and tougher Ukrainian supporters, including the US, UK, Poland and the Baltic states.

“Did anyone talk like that with Adolf Hitler during World War II?” said Polish President Andrzej Duda in a recent interview. “Did someone say that Adolf Hitler had to save face? That we should proceed in such a way that it is not humiliating for Adolf Hitler? … I have not heard such voices.

Macron’s interest in appeasing Russia is manifold. On the one hand, he wants to secure a leading role in the peace negotiations that will eventually have to take place.

“It’s driven more by vanity than anything else,” said Eliot Cohen, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. But “in a case like this, where you have a live war where thousands of people die, civilians are massacred and deported, cities are razed to the ground, etc., there is something really problematic to talk about this way,” he said.

Moreover, it is all but certain that Macron’s language actually boosts his credibility with Russia. “I doubt Russians will be happy with Macron’s choice of words,” said Jean de Gliniasty, a former French ambassador to Moscow and author of a recent book on Putin’s Russia. “They don’t necessarily see themselves as humiliated, but rather as unfairly treated.”

In a state television clip widely picked up by French news channels this month, two commentators mocked Macron’s repeated and painful pleas to the Russian president, which they called “unnecessary”.

But Macron’s insistence on maintaining a link with Putin also means that France is assuming a leadership role in a Europe that has surpassed the now deceased German Chancellor Angela Merkel and a tradition of French foreign policy that has always prided itself on to show its independence from Washington.

The French leader has engaged in dialogue with his Russian counterpart since becoming president, often drawing criticism from his Western allies. Just weeks after his election in 2017, Macron hosted Putin in the splendor of the Palace of Versailles for a “pragmatic” exchange on various issues, including the conflicts in eastern Ukraine and Syria. Several face-to-faces later, Macron remains convinced that “we will have to find rules for cohabitation with Russia” and not only on Ukraine but also on cyber, space and arms control, said Pierre Morcos of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

At the same time, France’s relative caution in its involvement in the war reflects a longstanding reluctance, dating back at least to the presidency of Charles de Gaulle in the 1950s and 1960s, to align itself too closely with the United States. . This “diplomacy of balance” consists of being “very close to our allies but always keeping our positions slightly different, in order to mark our independence”, declared Guillaume Devin, expert in international relations at Sciences Po in Paris.

Washington’s push for European strategic autonomy has been a long-running battle by Macron and one that has already been hampered by the White House’s shift from an erratic Donald Trump to a much more reliable Joe Biden. Now, the Russian-Ukrainian war may be the final nail in the coffin of Macron’s grand scheme.

France’s position betrays a “desire to have the geopolitical center of gravity somewhere between Paris and Berlin, but that’s just not the case anymore,” Cohen said. “The combination of the United States, Eastern European states, Britain and, to some extent, Canada forms a larger and in many ways more important bloc in all of this.”

French officials insist that Paris stands firmly with Ukraine, is committed to restoring its territorial integrity and speaks to the Kremlin only after coordination with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. While France’s military support in Kyiv pales in comparison to what is provided by the United States and Britain, Macron has sent heavy weapons to Ukraine, including MILAN anti-tank missiles and Caesar self-propelled howitzers. Paris has also been one of the strongest advocates for reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy sources, and it is largely thanks to French pressure that EU members have managed to agree on a partial ban on Russian oil at the end of May.

Sciences Po’s Devin describes the French approach as “limited engagement”, combining active support for Ukraine with efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating. While Kyiv’s staunchest allies think Ukraine can win on the battlefield and Russia must lose – and decisively – countries like France, Germany and Italy don’t see no clear military end to the conflict, he said.

“Their idea is to make life hard for Russia but without losing face, which would crush any chance of negotiation and accelerate military escalation,” Devin said.

In some ways, the gap between Paris and Washington is narrower than it looks. The American position has hardly been monolithic itself. In late April, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Washington wanted “to see Russia weakened to the point that it cannot do the kinds of things it did by invading Ukraine”. But in a recent editorial in New York TimesBiden, while emphasizing that “every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground,” acknowledged that the conflict “will only be definitively ended through diplomacy,” citing Zelensky.

CSIS’s Morcos said the Biden administration realizes that Ukraine cannot recover all of its lost territory through military means alone. Disagreements within the pro-Ukrainian camp are about the right time to start talking with Russia, Morcos said, with more hawkish governments opposed to opening the door to negotiations too quickly, especially given recent Ukrainian advances in certain areas and the accumulation of evidence of war. crimes committed by Russian forces.

The dream of strategic autonomy dies hard. During a trip to Romania this week, Macron insisted that if France supports Ukraine “without any indulgence” towards Moscow, “at some point, when we will have done everything to help Ukraine resist , when Ukraine has prevailed, as I hope, and especially when the fighting has stopped, it will be necessary to negotiate. The Ukrainian president… will have to negotiate with Russia, and we Europeans will be at this table.

France, Germany and Italy want to build a “framework of peace and security in Europe, which means maintaining separate European communication channels with the Russians, separate from American channels,” said de Gliniasty, l former ambassador. But other EU members such as Poland and the Baltic states are unwilling to maintain a separate dialogue with the Kremlin and believe that when the time comes talks should be led by the US, he said. declared.

Since the start of the invasion, “the concept of strategic autonomy has taken a back seat; it is the alliance with the United States that matters in these times of conflict,” de Gliniasty said.

While France and its Western European partners struggle to remain relevant in Ukraine, the most bellicose approach prevails on the ground. Western military involvement grew slowly but steadily. In recent weeks, the United States and Britain have both approved sending long-range missiles to Ukraine. While Kyiv promised not to use such weapons to strike Russian territory, Putin reacted angrily to the new arms shipments, threatening “to hit targets we hadn’t hit before”.

Macron may be right to say that the time for negotiations will come sooner or later. But as the battle rages on, too many on the pro-Ukrainian front are still determined not to show any signs of fatigue that Russia could exploit. On Wednesday, Western countries approved new arms shipments to keep Kyiv in the fight. Macron seems to have missed the timing of his “humiliating” remarks.

“France may have spoken too early,” Morcos said.

Kiren Rijiju meets Khamba Lama in Mongolia Tue, 14 Jun 2022 07:03:31 +0000

Ulan Bator, June 14 (IANS): As part of the activity of placing the holy relic at Gandam Monastery in Ulaanbaatar, Union Law and Justice Minister Kiren Rijiju held a meeting with Khamba Nomun Khan (Khamba Lama) of Gandan Monastery. It was a reunion of old friends as the two met a few times in the past and Rijiju had the opportunity to welcome Khamba Lama to New Delhi.

During Monday’s meeting, Khamba Lama mentioned the ancient traditional relations between India and Mongolia in which Buddhism has played an important role over the years.

He referred to Mahatma Gandhi’s teachings on non-violence which he said the world should learn from, especially when there is violence, conflict and lawlessness in some parts of the world. He also referred to the huge role played by Ambassador Kushak Bakula, who was India’s envoy to Mongolia in the 1990s and introduced Buddhism in its modern form from which Mongolia had grown detached for years after. the communist regime.

Khamba Lama mentioned the Buddha statue which was donated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi a few years ago and which came through the pandemic period supporting and blessing the Mongolian people. He mentioned the change in Buddhist teachings which historically came from Tibet and now came from India.

Khamba Lama also mentioned India’s assistance in setting up the oil refinery in Mongolia, which will certainly have a significant impact on the country’s economy. He said Mongolia relies on India as a reliable nation that follows a policy of balance in international relations and also in Asia. He appreciated the fact that the relic was brought to Mongolia on a wonderful, big plane.

Rijiju recalled his visits to Mongolia in the past and the friendship he had developed with prominent leaders across the country.

He mentioned the significance of the Buddha relic and expressed his satisfaction that he was able to personally accompany the relic. He reiterated that the relic does not usually travel abroad, but this time it was decided not only to bring the relic to Mongolia, but also to make it available to the Mongolian people to pay their respects during the next 11 days.

The minister mentioned that this visit gave him the opportunity to keep in touch with his friends in Mongolia through the Buddhist circuit and also to further strengthen the relations between the two countries.

He especially thanked Khamba Lama for the crucial role he played in linking the people of the two nations.

Rijiju also mentioned that the relationship between the two countries is strong and versatile and has stood the test of time. This, he said, was mainly due to the genuine friendship and understanding that existed between the peoples and leaders of the two countries.

He said that besides Buddhism, there are several other areas of cooperation that will enable a strong bond between the two countries.

Biden’s trade policy is shrouded in domestic and Trumpian politics Sun, 12 Jun 2022 12:00:28 +0000

Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Former US President Donald Trump weighs heavily on the US political landscape. Its celebrity candidates, JD Vance in Ohio and Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, won their respective primary battles to become Republican candidates for the Senate in November 2022. Both are likely to win seats.

Resentful Trump candidate David Perdue lost in the primary to Georgia Governor Brian Kemp. But overall, Trump’s endorsements, along with the retirement of several Republican officials who disagreed with his policies, have tightened his control over the party.

Record inflation, spurred by massive stimulus in 2020 and 2021 and extremely loose monetary policy through February 2022, has all but wiped out the Democratic Party’s hopes of retaining control of Congress in the November 2022 election.

Biden’s valiant support for Ukraine goes beyond memories of the humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan. An exceptionally tight job market means anyone who can get out of bed can find a job. But in today’s political landscape, the pain of inflation is greater. Deserved or not, Biden is blamed and his party will suffer electorally as a result.

Political arithmetic apparently compels Biden to follow Trump’s international policies, even if he follows a different domestic path. Trump set the stage for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and Biden implemented the disgraceful departure. Trump and his trade ambassador, Robert Lighthizer, have discarded decades of orthodox Republican adherence to free trade and multilateralism.

Under pressure from progressive Democrats, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Biden and his trade ambassador, Katherine Tai, are avoiding any suggestion that opening markets could be good for America. Instead, their trade policy claims to be “worker-centric,” improving labor rights, promoting gender equality, increasing minorities, and improving the environment. A set of almost impossible missions.

In practice, “worker-centric” means protecting manufacturing jobs, even as manufacturing vacancies skyrocket. Ambassador Tai can persuade other countries to adopt the fundamental rights of the International Labor Organization and endorse the Paris Club’s carbon emissions targets, but it is fanciful to imagine that the U.S. partners will implement tougher rules than their domestic constituents already accept. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization remains condemned to monumental US indifference.

Biden’s real adherence to the Trumpian doctrine is his pursuit, if not escalation, of the Cold War with China. Since Thucydides, scholars have observed the cycle of action and reaction that characterizes major power relations.

China-US relations might be different today if Trump had launched a charm offensive with Beijing in 2018 rather than a trade war. The same could be said of US-Russian relations if George HW Bush had kept his promise, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, not to expand NATO. Biden’s challenge is to ensure that fierce competition with China does not end in fatal disaster.

Biden’s amplified hostility to China, drawn from Trumpian writings, now encompasses exports, imports, investment, technology and scientific exchange. Faced with a conflict between hostility and a policy of limited international economic engagement, Biden has rediscovered a forgotten feature of geopolitics – that economic engagement is vital for cementing alliances.

Unwilling to embrace bilateral market access in trade in goods and services and concerned that bilateral foreign direct investment will enrich businesses but not workers, Biden and his team concocted frameworks of engagement that have the feel but not the substance of past initiatives like the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – now transformed into the comprehensive Trans-Pacific Partnership and progressive (CPTPP) without the United States.

Along with the EU, Biden’s alternative framework is called the US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The TTC creates several working groups and working groups to address artificial intelligence, product standards, semiconductor supply chains, digital platforms, labor rights and more. But the heart of the cooperation is the sanctions against Russia and possibly China. In short, the overriding mandate of the TTC is safety, masked by the language of economic engagement.

The recently announced Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) between the United States and 13 Asian partners is much the same. The four pillars – connected economy, resilient economy, clean economy and fair economy – seem like something out of a public relations textbook. IPEF members can choose which pillars to join. Not named in the IPEF statement, but by far the most important are the implicit US security guarantees to Asian partners who find themselves at odds with China.

The even more recent Partnership of the Americas for Economic Prosperity (APEP), unveiled by Biden at the Summit of the Americas on June 8, is just as long in rhetoric and short in substance, but security does not feature in hemispheric relations. .

Can Europe or Asia expect major changes to Biden’s current strategy — security cooperation shrouded in hazy economic frameworks — when the president faces a Republican Congress in 2023 and 2024? If Biden makes an early, secret decision not to seek a second term, he will free himself from the shackles of progressive Democrats and Trumpian Republicans.

In this scenario, the Biden administration could engage in significant efforts to revive the WTO and give economic substance to the TTC and the IPEF, and even to the APEP. Biden could even offer olive branches to Beijing. But if Biden harbors hopes of a second term, the next two years will look a lot like the last — puns but little substance in international economic engagement.

Gary Clyde Hufbauer is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Zimbabwe leans on Russia as others shun Moscow for invading Ukraine Wed, 08 Jun 2022 14:21:30 +0000

With much of the world fleeing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, Zimbabwe this month hosted Russia’s third-highest ranking official. Analysts say Zimbabwe is looking to Russia for fuel as well as the cooking oil and wheat it used to get from Ukraine, while Russia has its eyes on Zimbabwe’s minerals.

Valentina Ivanovna Matvienko, President of the Federation Council of Russia, during her visit to Harare, Zimbabwe, May 30, 2022. (Columbus Mavhunga/VOA)

During a visit to Zimbabwe last week, Valentina Ivanovna Matvienko, chairwoman of the Russian Federation Council, said Moscow would improve trade relations between the two countries as the West shuns them.

Alexander Rusero, who heads international relations studies at Africa University in Zimbabwe, says the nation’s ties to Russia are both ideological and historical.

He says the relationship dates back to when Russia supplied arms to the current ruling party, ZANU-PF, as it fought for Zimbabwe’s independence in the late 1970s.

Russia then vetoed proposed UN sanctions against Zimbabwe in 2008, when President Robert Mugabe won re-election through electoral fraud and brutal intimidation.

“And given the realities that Zimbabwe is seen as a pariah state, it is seen as an outpost of tyranny by the Western international community, by the United States which is currently in an antagonistic relationship with Russia, so Zimbabwe historically and ideologically will be leaning more to Russia and China than to the Western international community,” Rusero said.

Harare-based independent political commentator Rejoice Ngwenya says Russia is interested in Zimbabwe’s minerals, such as gold and platinum.

“Not to mention the business arrangements and relationships that have been established over the past two decades. It is therefore unrealistic to expect a radical change in any policy between Zimbabwe and Russia on the basis of the war in Ukraine. It is important to condemn invasions from any country, but unfortunately international politics also works in terms of self-interest and self-preservation,” Ngwenya said.

Women selling bread on the streets of one of Zimbabwe's townships in Harare on June 8, 2022 as the price of bread soared in shops.  (Columbus Mavhunga/VOA)

Women selling bread on the streets of one of Zimbabwe’s townships in Harare on June 8, 2022 as the price of bread soared in shops. (Columbus Mavhunga/VOA)

Zimbabwe depends on Russia and Ukraine for about 65 percent of its imported wheat. Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the price of bread and flour in the country has risen dramatically as exports from the war zone have dried up.

Tafadzwa Musarara, the chairman of Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe, who is in charge of grain importation on June 08, 2022 in Harare.  (Columbus Mavhunga/VOA)

Tafadzwa Musarara, the chairman of Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe, who is in charge of grain importation on June 08, 2022 in Harare. (Columbus Mavhunga/VOA)

“We have been affected. We are working with the government to import more wheat. We need ASAP. Commodity prices are going up, some of our wheat products like bread are going up,” said Tafadzwa Musarara, chairman of the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe, which is in charge of grain imports.

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he considered Africa a “friend” and would make efforts to ensure shortage goods reached the continent.

This would certainly be good news for countries like Zimbabwe, which even at the best of times is struggling to feed its people.

Utah Valley University and World Trade Center Utah to Host National Leaders and Experts at U.S.-China Relations Summit | News @ UVU | News @ UVU Mon, 06 Jun 2022 22:49:13 +0000

OREM, Utah — Leaders and experts in U.S.-China relations, international trade and affairs, and national security policy will converge on Utah Valley University’s Orem Campus on June 9 as the UVU and the World Trade Center Utah host the first annual China Challenge Summit.

The goal of the summit is to discuss, understand, and provide thought leadership regarding China’s geopolitical, trade, business, and foreign policy strategy and how U.S. businesses and policymakers should respond to these challenges. Attendees can expect to receive strategic insights and tactical advice for operating in today’s global environment, with a particular focus on China.

“The relationship between the United States and China has never been more complex than it is today and with so many stakes,” said Jon Huntsman, former US ambassador to China and chairman of the board of the World Trade Center Utah. “The challenges are many: hostility to trade policies, China’s WTO obligations, military power, data privacy, cybersecurity and protection of intellectual property rights. The China Challenge Summit is an unprecedented gathering of many of the world’s best minds to discuss these challenges and provide practical advice to business and political leaders around the world to help us all, in our various responsibilities, to navigate the difficult path ahead of us.

Speakers and presenters will include Jon Huntsman, Jr., former U.S. Ambassador to China; Matt Pottinger, former deputy national security adviser; Craig Allen, President of the US-China Business Council; Sarah Kemp, vice president of international government affairs at Intel; Robb Gordon, senior director of policy at Intel; Evan Medeiros, chair of Asian studies at Georgetown University; Jeremie Waterman, president of the China Center of the American Chamber of Commerce; and Lingling Wei, chief China correspondent at The Wall Street Journal.

Companies and institutions represented will include US-China Business Council, Kroll, Albright Stonebridge Group, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Intel, Strider Technologies, Council on Foreign Relations, Microsoft, Georgetown University, NYSHEX, US Indo-Pacific Command, Hoover Institution, Palantir Technologies, Utah Valley University, US Chamber of Commerce, World Trade Center Utah, and The Wall Street Journal.

China is the United States’ third-largest trading partner, after Canada and Mexico, respectively, with total trade of more than $650 billion in 2021 according to data from the International Trade Administration. Imports from China accounted for 77% of this trade, with computer and electronic products making up the vast majority of this trade.

On the other hand, exports to China accounted for 23%, with computer and electronic products, chemicals and agricultural products being the main exported products.

Trade between the two countries in 2021 has almost rebounded to 2018 levels, but with China’s zero COVID policy and resulting lockdowns, trade could decline from 2021 to 2022.

Over the past 10 years, Utah has accounted for less than 1% of total U.S. trade with China, with exports coming mostly from computers and electronics, and imports coming largely from manufacturing. cutting edge and computer products.

For more information see China Challenge Summit.

Moving geopolitical tectonic plates Sun, 05 Jun 2022 06:50:10 +0000

5 minutes
(1403 words)

Download PDF

A more fragmented world will need the IMF more, not less

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened a new chapter in international relations, with important implications for the world economic order.

The outbreak of full-scale war on European soil, with its associated human tragedies, brings back memories of the continent’s darkest times. Within three days of the invasion, the Group of Seven, consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, soon followed by other countries, deployed a series of economic sanctions against the aggressor.

As noted in our latest World Economic Outlook, the war and associated economic sanctions will have a major impact on the global economy, slowing activity and increasing price pressures.

Like an earthquake, the war has an epicenter, located in Russia and Ukraine. The economic record of these two countries is extremely heavy. According to our projections, the Ukrainian economy will contract by 35% and that of Russia by 8.5% in 2022.

The war also caused seismic waves, radiating from the epicenter, and impacting economies everywhere. The first impact is on the price of raw materials. Because Russia and Ukraine are major producers and exporters of oil, gas, metals and grains, the price of these commodities has skyrocketed, causing hardship around the world and contributing to a significant increase in inflation. Secondly, trade flows have been severely disrupted, with a major impact on Russia’s and Ukraine’s close trading partners, particularly in the Caucasus, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and the Baltics, but also more largely through supply chain disruptions. The war has also caused a major refugee crisis in Europe, with nearly 6 million people fleeing Ukraine in less than three months. Third, the war caused financial conditions to tighten, weakening many economies and indirectly tightening monetary policy faster than expected in advanced economies.

The earthquake analogy is perhaps the most appropriate because war reveals a sudden change in the underlying “geopolitical tectonic plates”. The danger is that these plates will move further apart, fragmenting the global economy into separate economic blocs with different ideologies, political systems, technological standards, cross-border payment and trade systems, and reserve currencies. The war has made manifest deeper divergent processes. We must focus on these and understand them if we are to prevent the ultimate collapse of our global economic order.

In this regard, the earthquake analogy has its limitations, which gives reason for moderate optimism. These “geopolitical plates” are man-made and reflect history, institutions and people. While each plate or block may have enormous inertia, ultimately people – and their governments – can chart their own course. Reason and mutual economic interest may prevail.

In this context, the most profound economic force at play is the rise of emerging market economies, particularly China. The economic rise of China and other emerging market economies is a direct consequence of their integration into the global economy: international trade and economic growth have surged over the past 40 years precisely because the world was not segmented. Yet the rise in economic power of these countries has not been matched by a similar increase in their global financial and institutional firepower.

Nowhere is this more evident than when we examine the importance of the US dollar in the international monetary and financial system. System scholars like me have long pointed out that US dollar dominance is absolute and organic but ultimately fragile. It is absolute because no other international currency manages to question the role of the dollar as an international means of payment, unit of account and store of value. It is organic because this domination does not depend on organized rules. Dollar-gold convertibility ended in 1971, yet the dollar’s dominance has instead increased due to interlocking, self-reinforcing network effects, and the unchallenged liquidity and security of US Treasuries. It is also ultimately fragile because the United States’ share of global output, and therefore the share of global output that it can safely back up through its official debt instruments, is bound to decline. as emerging market economies develop. With a declining share of global output, the United States cannot remain the world’s sole provider of safe assets indefinitely. This is what Hélène Rey and I have called “Triffin’s new dilemma”.

No one can reasonably predict when or how the current absolute dominance of the dollar will be supplanted by a multipolar system. This is one of the flaws in the current economic order. How this transition is implemented could have a major effect on the global economy and the future of multilateralism. At one end of the spectrum, we might end up with separate blocks. This would solve Triffin’s dilemma by making the world smaller, but also less efficient. On the other hand, the global economic system could remain integrated, but the interactions and possible coordination between several reserve currencies, including the US dollar, remain undefined.

In this vacuum, the war and the unprecedented and coordinated freezing of the international reserves of the Central Bank of Russia represent major new developments. Powerful centrifugal forces have been set in motion which, if not carefully controlled, could lead to further economic fragmentation.

By design, the central bank reserve freeze represents a major attack on the heart of “Fortress Russia,” the economic and financial bulwarks that Russian authorities have put in place since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. large war chest of international reserves… 37% of Russian GDP – was supposed to protect Russia from financial sanctions. With much of the reserves frozen, Russia now relies heavily on continued energy exports to fund its war effort – a major vulnerability.

But central bank sanctions call into question the broader usefulness of international dollar reserves in the first place, especially if the terms under which restrictions on their use appear arbitrary, at least from the perspective of the countries that hold them. This poses a “Triffin geopolitical dilemma” where the expectation of future restrictions on the use of reserves, instead of insufficient fiscal space, could trigger a move away from dollar assets.

In this regard, the war has highlighted the potential instability of the current global economic order. In this new environment, the IMF faces serious existential questions. As a global institution whose goal is to promote global economic integration, it can become increasingly difficult to operate in a geopolitically polarized environment. The convenience route would be to scale back ambitions and focus on the bloc historically aligned with early Bretton Woods signatories. But that would not be up to the historical challenge.

The war highlighted the potential instability of the current global economic order.

Instead, we must recognize that a fragmented world is a more unstable and vulnerable world, where access to safe assets is more restricted and the global financial safety net is less complete. This is a world that needs the IMF more, not less. As an institution, we must find ways to fulfill our mission to provide financial assistance and expertise when needed and to maintain and represent all of our members, even if the political environment makes it more difficult. If the geopolitical tectonic plates begin to pull apart, we will need more bridges, not fewer.

PIERRE-OLIVIER GOURINCHAS is an economic adviser to the IMF and director of the research department.

Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.