Fuller Treacy Comment of the Day

Comment of the day
Video commentary from September 28, 2022

A link to today’s video commentary.

Some of the topics covered include: The Bank of England steps in to support the gilt market and is interpreted as a moving risk. gold, oil and copper, stocks rebound, the dollar retreats and yields contract. In the medium term, this is a monetization of the debt and likely to exacerbate inflationary pressures.

Bank of England support action email of the day

I just read the article below and am surprised that pension funds take (or are allowed to take) leveraged positions. If the positions are for hedging, shouldn’t they have all the cash to take delivery? Your opinions would be valuable.

An interesting table is attached. The magnitude of the loss on a 40 year UKT issued last year!

It’s been a long time since I started listening to your amazing Daily Commentary. Now, it’s mandatory for me to hear your comments so I can put into perspective everything else I hear elsewhere.

Thank you for your valuable service, and I hope your readers will have your guiding words for many decades to come.

Eoin Treacy’s point of view – Thank you for this informative email and the table of Gilt 40 years. The fact that I received this same chart from multiple sources today is an indication of how important it is for a long-term developed country bond to trade at 20p on the pound. Last year was the perfect time to issue a 40-year bond, so congratulations to the Treasury Department. The measures announced by the Bank of England to support the market were necessary but came at a significant cost.

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Biogen and Eisai rise as Alzheimer’s drug shows promise in trial

This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“There is an important caveat, however: the magnitude of the delay – which was a slowing of the decline – was small,” he said. “We can only hope that the benefit is sustainable and can grow over time. These long-term properties are unknowable at this time.

The drug was originally licensed from Sweden’s BioArctic AB, whose shares more than doubled on the news.

The Alzheimer’s Association hailed the results, saying they were the most encouraging discoveries to date for drugs aimed at treating the underlying causes of the disease. Lecanemab has the potential to change the course of the disease and help people in the early stages retain their abilities, stay independent and participate fully in daily life, the group said.

Pharmaceutical and biotech analysts were also optimistic. “We finally have what we believe is a clear victory in Alzheimer’s disease,” wrote Evan David Seigerman, analyst at BMO Capital Markets (NYSE: BMO), in a note to clients. “Early data is clear to us – lecanemab slows the rate of cognitive decline.”

The trial met all stated goals, including other measures of mental function and the ability to perform daily activities, the companies said.

Eoin Treacy’s point of view – The biotechnology/pharmaceutical sector is infinitely productive. It is one of the few where there is real potential for new products to address unmet needs. This means that there is clear potential for value creation that can contribute to both improved living standards and increased productivity.

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Fertilizer maker Mosaic says some Florida sites have been evacuated

This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Fertilizer maker Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS). evacuated some of its Florida operations as Hurricane Ian prepares to make landfall.

All of our Florida locations have been secured with some “fully evacuated,” Mosaic spokesman Bill Barksdale said in an email Wednesday. The state is home to Mosaic’s phosphate rock assets, where they extract products, and facilities where they process this rock into fertilizer for crops.

Ian’s current trajectory takes him near Tampa, through most of Mosaic’s facilities. The facilities are expected to remain closed for at least a week due to the hurricane, a hit that could knock third-quarter revenue down by $240 million to $300 million, Bloomberg Intelligence said in a note Wednesday. Ammonia imports from Yara International and CF Industries in Tampa may also slow.

The storm is on a similar track to Hurricane Irma in 2017, when Mosaic lost about 400,000 metric tons of finished phosphate products, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Eoin Treacy’s point of view – One of Mosaic’s main phosphate mines is between Tampa and Orlando. There is a clear risk of flooding in the area. The defining characteristic of recent hurricanes has been slow motion and high rainfall totals. The fertilizer supply chain is already strained, so this hurricane is unlikely to be good news.

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Oral Commitments – World Money Show October 2022

I have agreed to speak at the World Money Show in Orlando on October 30.

The Chart Seminar London November 21 and 22, 2022

We live in rapidly changing markets, so the next location for the Chart Seminar will be November 21-22 this year in London.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, want to attend, or have a suggestion for an alternate venue, please don’t hesitate to contact Sarah at [email protected]

The full price for The Chart seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not subject to VAT). Annual subscribers get a reduced rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one seat is also eligible for the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

Eoin’s Personal Wallet: Precious Metals Loss Taken September 23, 2022

One of the most frequently asked questions from subscribers is how do I find my open trade details. To make things easier, I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.

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