The Golden State Warriors edged the Boston Celtics on Sunday to tie the NBA Finals at 1-1. After being outscored 40-16 in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors managed to close the door in a 107-88 win. The series is now turning into a best-of-five with Boston holding home-court advantage, which raises an interesting topic. Is the right team favoured?
Boston opened as a 3.5-point favorite for Wednesday Night’s pivotal Game 3. The Warriors closed at the same number in Game 1. So the market is telling you these teams are tied based on the spread. solely on home field advantage. However, the Celtics are the betting underdogs in the series despite having home-court advantage in three of the last five games. Current odds at BetMGM are Golden State -115, Boston -105. So if the teams are tied, the value is with Boston at the lowest price.
Is this the best time to bet on Boston?
I didn’t bet Boston would win the series at +135 before Game 1. I bet and missed the prize, and I think it’s unlikely we’ll get it back. However, with a future bet already on the account for the Celtics to win the NBA title, it was worth holding on and seeing if a Golden State win to open the series might yield even better odds. I expected the two teams to split the first two games, but in reverse order. Timing is everything, so let’s not make the same mistake twice.
If you are still looking to bet on Boston to win the series, now is the time to enter the market. There are two ways this series will play out based on Game 3 on Wednesday night. If Boston wins and takes a 2-1 series lead, the odds are unlikely to ever get better than the current number unless they drop Games 4 and 5. In which case, at what point would you be confident to bet them 3-2? On the other hand, if Boston loses Wednesday night and trails the series 2-1, we’re stuck in a position where we need to have enough confidence to bet they’ll win three of the last four games. You’ll get a better price, but your probability of winning drops, making it a high-risk bet. Taking the Celtics now at -105 with the series returning to Boston is the best time to enter the market at a reasonable price.
Don’t bet on Warriors – bet on Steph Curry (+100)
Every dollar counts in sports betting. Long-term success is the accumulation of small benefits earned throughout the year. After watching the first two games of this series, it’s pretty clear that Steph Curry will be the MVP in any scenario that includes Golden State winning this series. Curry scored 29 and 34 in the first two games while shooting 46% from beyond the arc.
Golden State’s secondary scorers have been small so far, and it’s hard to see them warming up against the Boston defense on the road. There are plenty of series left, but Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins or Jordan Poole haven’t shown enough to bring them within range of Curry. If you’re preparing to bet on the Warriors to win the final at -115, bet on Steph Curry to win the MVP instead to tie.
Bet on more blowouts
The lack of suspense has been one of the fascinating factors of the NBA playoffs. Very few games ended in final possession, and that continued in the first two games of the NBA Finals. Boston won by 12 and Golden State responded with a 19-point blowout that saw the Celtics wave the white flag as they rested their starters for most of the final quarter.
In Boston and Golden State’s combined 34 playoff games heading into the Finals, the losing team covered just 14% (5-29 ATS). Therefore, a bet on Boston Moneyline should be removed from the table on Wednesday night. Instead, lay the -3.5 with the Celtics at -110 or play the Warriors moneyline at +135.