The House race leans heavily towards the GOP, but what makes this cycle interesting is the unpredictability of the Senate map. here are the seats that could tip:
1. Pennsylvania: The race to replace incumbent GOP Senator Pat Toomey represents the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity. President Joe Biden narrowly won the Commonwealth in 2020, after former President Donald Trump carried it in 2016, making it a crucial battleground for midterms and the upcoming presidential contest. The tight Senate race pits Republican Mehmet Oz against Democrat John Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor.
2. Nevada: Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto’s task of winning over disgruntled Biden voters is complicated with a transient population in a state that has been hit hard by the pandemic and where average gasoline prices remain near $5 a gallon. . Cortez Masto and his GOP challenger Adam Laxalt were tied at 47% in a New York Times/Siena Poll – a finding similar to a recent CBS poll and CNN poll from early October, which showed no clear leader.
3. Georgia: No race has seen more drama in the past month than Georgia, where Trump’s hand-picked candidate Herschel Walker is face allegations of two women that he urged them to have abortions, which he denied. But the accusations, which have played into the Democratic narrative that the retired soccer star is a hypocrite, don’t appear to have done much harm to his standing in the race against Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a full term. six years old. . After initially avoiding the allegations, Warnock used them in a recent ad against his opponent.
4. Wisconsin: As the only Republican senator seeking re-election in a state Biden won in 2020, Sen. Ron Johnson is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the chamber. A law school at Marquette University poll published on Wednesday showed no clear leader in the race between Johnson and Democratic Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes – similar to a CNN survey from mid-October – which is comparable to the race for the near governor. Biden only carried Wisconsin by less than half a point in 2020, so it’s still a tough state.
5. Arizona: The race between Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters has also tightened. A Fox News Poll released on Tuesday shows no clear leader, with Masters receiving support from Republicans. But Kelly, who won a special election in 2020 and is running for a full six-year term, has proven to be a much more resilient Democrat to tarnish than some of the other GOP targets. That made this race — in a purple state that Biden won by less than half a point — more competitive for Democrats.
6. North Carolina: The race to replace retired GOP senator Richard Burr looks like closer than many observers expected at the start of the cycle. Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Rep. Ted Budd were tied among registered voters in a Marist poll in late October. Budd, a third-term congressman, had a small advantage among certain voters. North Carolina has a history of shutting down elections — Trump only won it by about 1 point in 2020. But Democrats haven’t won a Senate race here since 2008, the last time the State turned blue at the presidential level.
seven. New Hampshire: This race’s position in the standings continues to be one of the biggest surprises of the 2022 cycle. The retired Army Brig. Gen. Don Bolduc faces Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan for the first term after running through the September primaries.
8. Ohio: GOP Sen. Rob Portman’s race for retirement was not meant to be competitive. Trump won the state by 8 points and, with the exception of Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s success, the trend has been red over the past decade. Given these fundamentals and the national mood, the Republicans still have the edge here, which is why they’re in the bottom half of this list. But there’s no denying that Trump’s handpicked Republican nominee, JD Vance, has struggled to raise funds and shore up GOP support after a divisive primary. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has had the airwaves mostly for him over the summer, and his vast fundraising advantage has allowed him to air numerous ads in which he says he sided with Trump. on trade and takes its own side. The candidates were essentially tied in a Marist survey at the end of October.
9. Florida: The Sunshine State ranked lower on the list of seats most likely to flip because Republican Sen. Marco Rubio — despite being outscored by a strong challenger to Democratic Rep. Val Demings — is a two-term incumbent who seems to be doing whatever he has to do to win in this environment.
ten. Colorado: Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is being used to close the races; he won his last re-election in 2016 by just 6 points against a GOP challenger whom the national party had abandoned. He faces a much tougher opponent this time in businessman Joe O’Dea, who voiced his support for abortion early in pregnancy and has criticized Trump. Biden’s smaller margin in Colorado — he won Washington by 19 points — makes him more likely to swing if the national environment gives Republicans a chance to land a seat in a state considered blue safely.